Oil Prices Rise as Trade Optimism Outweighs Venezuela Supply Concerns

Market Outlook Supported by Trade Talks and Supply Disruptions

Oil prices edged higher on Friday, buoyed by positive sentiment surrounding U.S. trade talks and the potential for increased oil demand, despite concerns over a possible increase in supply from Venezuela.

Brent crude futures rose by 20 cents, or 0.29%, to $69.38 per barrel at 05:19 GMT, reaching a one-week high. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 20 cents, or 0.30%, to $66.23 per barrel.

Optimism Around U.S.-Trade Deals

The upward momentum in oil prices was largely driven by optimism surrounding ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and its key trading partners. After the U.S. and Japan announced a trade deal on Wednesday, two European diplomats suggested that the European Union (EU) was moving toward a deal with the U.S. that would involve a baseline U.S. tariff of 15% on EU imports, with possible exemptions.

This development is expected to ease trade tensions and has boosted sentiment regarding the global economy and the demand for oil, as the potential for a trade war between the U.S. and major economies seems to be waning.

Venezuela’s Oil Supply Concerns

However, the market remained cautious over the potential for additional oil supply from Venezuela, which may dampen prices. The United States is preparing to allow Chevron and other partners of Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA to operate with certain limitations in the sanctioned country. As a result, Venezuelan oil exports could increase by more than 200,000 barrels per day, which would ease the tightness in the heavier crude market.

While this increase in supply could benefit U.S. refiners, ING analysts noted that trade talk optimism was offsetting the expectation of stronger Venezuelan supply, keeping oil prices supported.

Market Developments and Inventory Draws

In addition to trade news, recent supply disruptions have lent support to the market. Reports of cuts to Russian gasoline exports, along with disruptions in Kazakh and Azeri oil exports via the Black Sea and the Turkish port of Ceyhan, helped push prices higher earlier in the week.

Moreover, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting a 3.2 million-barrel draw last week. This marked a larger-than-anticipated decline compared to the 1.6 million-barrel draw estimated by analysts, further supporting oil prices.

Weekly Performance

For the week, Brent crude has gained 0.4%, while WTI has fallen by 1.4%. Both contracts advanced by about 1% on Thursday, driven by tightening supplies and optimistic trade outlooks. With the August 1 tariff deadline fast approaching, markets remain focused on any further developments in trade negotiations and supply disruptions that could drive oil prices in the coming weeks.

Key Takeaways:

• Trade deal optimism between the U.S. and Japan, and potential EU agreements, continue to support oil prices.
• Venezuelan oil supply could increase but is offset by positive trade sentiment.
• U.S. crude inventory declines and supply disruptions also contribute to upward pressure on oil prices.

As the market awaits additional news on trade talks and oil supply dynamics, it remains to be seen whether these factors will continue to outweigh concerns related to global supply, particularly from Venezuela.