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Oil prices edged higher on Monday, supported by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports, while ongoing ceasefire discussions between Russia and the U.S. over Ukraine introduced supply uncertainty in global markets.
Key Price Movements:
- Brent crude futures: Up 36 cents (0.5%) to $72.52 per barrel.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude: Up 40 cents (0.6%) to $68.68 per barrel.
Both benchmarks posted their second consecutive weekly gain, driven by expectations of tighter supply following new U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ production adjustments.
Key Market Drivers:
1. U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Oil
- The U.S. announced new sanctions last Thursday, targeting Iran’s crude exports, including a Chinese “teapot refinery” processing Iranian oil.
- The sanctions raise concerns about a potential supply squeeze, adding bullish momentum to crude prices.
2. Ceasefire Talks and Potential Russian Oil Supply Increase
- U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss a possible ceasefire in Ukraine and a separate Black Sea maritime deal.
- A ceasefire could ease restrictions on Russian oil exports, potentially increasing supply in global markets.
3. OPEC+ Adjusts Output to Support Prices
- OPEC+ announced that seven member nations will make additional production cuts to compensate for previous overproduction.
- Since 2022, OPEC+ has been reducing output by 5.85 million barrels per day (about 5.7% of global supply) to stabilize oil prices.
4. Trade Tariff Uncertainty Eases
- Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that April’s planned tariffs may be less severe than expected.
- Trump indicated flexibility on tariffs and confirmed that his trade chief will negotiate with China, boosting market sentiment.
Market Outlook
- Tighter supply expectations from Iranian sanctions and OPEC+ cuts could support prices.
- A potential Ukraine ceasefire could increase Russian crude supply, acting as a downward pressure on prices.
- U.S.-China trade talks remain a key risk factor influencing demand expectations.
Investors will closely monitor further developments in U.S. sanctions, OPEC+ policy, and geopolitical negotiations to assess oil price direction in the coming weeks.
