Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as traders balanced mixed geopolitical signals and signs of economic softening from China, the world’s top crude importer. Brent crude futures for July delivery edged down 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.75 a barrel by 09:47 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June, set to expire today, remained flat at $64.80, while the more actively traded July contract slipped 5 cents to $62.10.
U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Remain in Limbo
Crude markets remained cautious following fresh skepticism from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei about the outcome of nuclear negotiations with the United States. While a fifth round of talks is under review, Khamenei’s comments added to doubts that a resolution is imminent.
A deal to restore the 2015 nuclear accord could potentially lead to a notable rise in Iranian crude exports. According to analysts at StoneX, Tehran could ramp up exports by as much as 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day if sanctions are lifted—an outcome that would add downward pressure to global oil prices already contending with demand concerns.
Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Limit Geopolitical Premium
Further limiting upward momentum in oil was the diplomatic thaw between Moscow and Kyiv. U.S. President Donald Trump signaled reluctance to escalate pressure on Russia with fresh sanctions, while Ukrainian and Russian leaders reportedly agreed to begin immediate ceasefire negotiations. The prospect of a peace deal in Eastern Europe, if realized, could dampen risk premiums built into energy markets during the multi-year conflict.
China Economic Data Points to Demand Headwinds
On the demand side, official figures out of China painted a mixed picture. Industrial output and retail sales in April both fell short of expectations, signaling potential softness in economic momentum just as the country recovers from heightened trade tensions.
While the numbers raised concerns over a potential pullback in Chinese fuel consumption, Goldman Sachs noted a late pickup in trade flows on Monday that may not yet be reflected in the headline data. The firm also suggested that the recently agreed 90-day truce on U.S.-China tariffs could help stabilize demand in the coming months.
Sentiment Remains Fragile
With macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical developments, and a constantly shifting headline landscape, oil traders are treading cautiously. “Beyond macroeconomics, geopolitics, and the current headline-trading environment, it is hard to ascertain when the mood would take a handbrake turn,” wrote PVM analyst Tamas Varga in a note to clients.
For now, oil appears locked in a narrow range as markets await more clarity on diplomatic breakthroughs and the underlying strength of global demand.
