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Oil prices saw modest gains on Friday, as investors weighed the tightness in the prompt market against a potential surplus in the global oil supply, while U.S. tariff threats and the possibility of further sanctions on Russia added to market uncertainty.
Key Price Movements:
- Brent Crude Futures: Up by 40 cents or 0.58%, trading at $69.04 a barrel as of 1027 GMT.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude: Increased by 45 cents or 0.68%, reaching $67.02 a barrel.
At these levels, Brent was on track for a 1.1% gain on the week, while WTI showed little change compared to the previous week’s close.
Market Overview:
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted tightness in the global oil market, suggesting that the market might be tighter than expected due to peak summer refinery runs aimed at meeting demand for travel and power generation.
- Saudi Arabia’s Shipments: There are indications of 51 million barrels of crude oil being shipped to China in August, marking the largest shipment in over two years. This suggests robust prompt demand.
- However, the IEA also increased its supply growth forecast for 2025, while reducing its demand growth projections, indicating a potential surplus in the global oil market.
Geopolitical Tensions and Sanctions:
- Oil markets were also sensitive to the impact of U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia. President Donald Trump has voiced frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress in peace talks regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine and the intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
- The European Commission is expected to propose a floating Russian oil price cap as part of a new sanctions package aimed at addressing Russia’s role in the ongoing conflict.
Market Outlook:
- IEA vs. OPEC Forecasts: While the IEA sees the market tightening in the short term, OPEC has revised its long-term outlook, cutting forecasts for global oil demand from 2026 to 2029, largely due to slowing Chinese demand.
- Despite Friday’s modest gains, Thursday saw both Brent and WTI futures lose more than 2% due to concerns over the potential impact of President Trump’s evolving tariff policy on global economic growth and oil demand.
As the global oil market remains in a state of flux with ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, investors will continue to monitor developments, particularly around tariff policies, Russian sanctions, and demand projections.
