Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
Oil prices remained relatively stable on Thursday, as investors braced for potential U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the largest suppliers of crude oil to the United States, and awaited the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for February 3.
- Brent crude futures: -$0.07 (-0.09%) at $76.51 per barrel
- U.S. crude futures: +$0.02 (+0.03%) at $72.64 per barrel
Key Market Factors
1. U.S. Tariff Concerns
- President Donald Trump remains committed to imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting Saturday.
- Karoline Leavitt, White House spokeswoman, confirmed that Canada and Mexico could avoid the tariffs if they close their borders to fentanyl.
- Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, also vowed to slow China’s advancement in artificial intelligence.
2. U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles
- U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 3.46 million barrels last week, in line with expectations.
- This increase occurred despite winter storms affecting demand across the U.S.
3. Russia’s Supply Constraints
- Crude oil exports from Russia are expected to fall by 8% in February as the country shifts focus to increased refining.
- This reduction follows the latest U.S. sanctions, which have impacted Russia’s ability to export crude.
4. OPEC+ Meeting on Feb. 3
- The OPEC+ group, comprising leading oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, will meet to discuss global oil production and Trump’s efforts to ramp up U.S. oil production.
- Trump has urged OPEC to lower oil prices, linking it to a possible end to the Ukraine conflict.
- Analysts suggest that a price war between the U.S. and OPEC+ is unlikely, as both sides would suffer significant losses.
5. Market Outlook: Potential Price Decline
- Analysts predict that Brent crude prices could drop below $50 per barrel if OPEC+ decides to deploy over 5 million barrels of oil per day from its spare capacity.
- This could lead to a decline in U.S. shale oil production, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
