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Oil Prices Edge Higher as EU Sanctions and Ukrainian Strikes Tighten Supply Outlook

Oil prices advanced on Monday, rebounding after last week’s losses, as traders weighed the impact of fresh European Union sanctions aimed at Russia’s energy revenues alongside heightened geopolitical tensions. As of 04:55 ET (08:55 GMT), Brent crude futures for November delivery rose 0.2% to $66.79 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.3% to $62.56.

Brent futures had slipped nearly 0.5% last week, pressured by President Donald Trump’s calls for lower prices. However, renewed concerns over Russian supply disruptions and geopolitical risk provided support at the start of the week.

EU Tightens Sanctions on Russian Energy

The European Commission unveiled its 19th sanctions package on Friday, targeting traders, refineries, and petrochemical firms in third countries, including China, that facilitate Russian energy flows. The package also includes a plan to blacklist 118 vessels tied to Russia’s “shadow fleet” and accelerate a ban on Russian LNG imports, potentially moving enforcement to January 2027 under U.S. pressure.

U.S. officials, including President Trump, have urged Europe to move faster, calling for punitive tariffs on major Russian oil buyers such as China and India, alongside a complete exit from Moscow’s energy exports.

Ukraine Escalates Strikes on Russian Infrastructure

Over the weekend, Ukraine intensified drone strikes on Russia’s refining sector, targeting Rosneft’s Saratov refinery and the Novokuibyshevsk plant in Samara Oblast. Combined, the two facilities process over 15 million tons of crude annually. The attacks triggered large fires and reinforced concerns that even temporary outages in Russia’s refining and export systems could tighten global supply margins.

Analysts noted that repeated disruptions—whether through strikes on terminals or pipeline bottlenecks—raise the risk premium in crude markets, limiting downside potential despite sluggish demand forecasts.

Rising Geopolitical Risk Adds Support

Tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe added further jitters. News that four Western nations recognized Palestinian statehood heightened regional risks, while NATO scrambled Polish and allied aircraft after Russian strikes near Ukraine’s western border. Separately, Russian jets violated Estonian airspace on Friday, and Germany reported a similar incursion over the Baltic on Sunday, underscoring persistent geopolitical flashpoints.

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