Oil Market Brief — Prices steady as U.S.–China thaw meets OPEC+ supply risk; API draws lend support

Market snapshot (Wed, 10:20 GMT)

• Brent: $64.51 (+$0.11, +0.2%)
• WTI: $60.21 (+$0.06, +0.1%)

Brent and WTI are holding near unchanged as the market balances improving U.S.–China diplomacy against the prospect of a December OPEC+ quota increase. A sizable U.S. inventory draw reported by the API is cushioning the downside.

Key drivers

1) U.S.–China leaders’ meeting
Beijing confirmed President Xi will meet President Trump on Thursday in Busan, South Korea, with both sides signaling a willingness to “inject new momentum” into ties. China also indicated openness to continued cooperation on fentanyl—and the U.S. flagged potential tariff reductions tied to curbing precursor exports. The prospect of a trade thaw is supportive for demand sentiment.

2) U.S. stock draws (API)
Preliminary API data for the week ended Oct 24 showed:

• Crude −4.02 mb
• Gasoline −6.35 mb
• Distillates −4.36 mb
  The broad-based draws are providing a modest bid, with traders awaiting official EIA confirmation.

3) OPEC+ supply outlook
Four sources suggest the group is leaning toward a modest December output boost, with two citing an additional ~137 kb/d. The supply headline risk caps rallies ahead of the meeting.

4) Geopolitics & recent price action
Both benchmarks posted their biggest weekly gains since June last week after fresh Ukraine-related U.S. sanctions targeted Russian majors Lukoil and Rosneft. That said, skepticism over sanctions’ near-term supply impact and talk of higher OPEC+ output saw prices fall ~1.9% in the prior session.

Near-term scenarios (not investment advice)

• Bullish: A limited or delayed OPEC+ increase, plus EIA confirmation of sizeable draws, could extend support and pull Brent back toward the mid–$65s. Constructive U.S.–China headlines would add demand beta.
• Bearish: An OPEC+ hike above market chatter (or hawkish supply guidance) would likely pressure the curve, especially if EIA data diverge from API. A cooler tone from the Xi–Trump meeting would also sap risk appetite.

What to watch next

• Official EIA inventories for validation of the API draws.
• OPEC+ pre-meeting signaling on the magnitude/timing of any quota change.
• Follow-through on U.S.–China talks, particularly tariff and fentanyl-related commitments.