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Oil Holds Steady as Iran Fears Fade and Trump’s Europe Tariff Threats Take Center Stage

Oil prices were largely unchanged in Asian trading on Monday after a volatile week dominated by geopolitical headlines, as markets shifted their focus from Iran supply risks to fresh trade tensions sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on Greenland.

By 21:10 ET (02:10 GMT), Brent crude futures for March delivery were flat at $64.10 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was not traded due to a public holiday in the United States.

Crude benchmarks ended last week higher overall, but early gains were sharply pared after Trump signaled that there would be no immediate military intervention in Iran. That comment eased fears of near-term supply disruptions from the Middle East, a region that accounts for a significant share of global oil output.

Earlier in the week, prices had surged on concerns that escalating unrest in Iran could threaten exports from one of OPEC’s key producers. The risk premium faded once Washington played down the likelihood of imminent action, allowing prices to stabilize toward the end of the week.

Attention has now turned to trade developments after Trump warned that he would impose tariffs on European countries opposing his plan for the United States to acquire Greenland. The nations named include France, Germany and the United Kingdom, along with several Nordic and northern European states.

Trump said a 10% tariff would take effect on February 1, rising to 25% in June if no agreement is reached. The move raises the prospect of a broader transatlantic trade dispute that could weigh on global growth and energy demand.

Reports suggest the European Union is preparing to suspend a proposed EU U.S. trade deal and may revive a €93 billion package of tariffs on American goods. French officials have also urged the bloc to consider deploying its anti coercion instrument against Washington, a step that could significantly escalate tensions.

Beyond geopolitics, traders continue to monitor broader macroeconomic signals, including expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts later this year. Easing financial conditions could support economic activity and oil demand, offering a potential tailwind for crude prices in the months ahead.

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