Oil heading to weekly gains on strong economic outlook

Oil prices edged slightly higher in choppy trading on Friday, heading for a second weekly gain as positive U.S. economic growth and signs of Chinese stimulus boosted demand expectations, while Middle East supply concerns added further support.

At the time of writing, Brent crude futures are up $1.19, or 1.49%, at $82.90 per barrel, and earlier on the day touched $83.57, their highest price since November. West Texas Intermediate crude is up 96 cents, or 1.26% at $77.96.

There has been a lot of money on the sidelines awaiting opportunity in crude and analysts believe that markets are seeing some of that come back into the space as the fundamentals for crude supplies seem to be tightening.

Brent crude and the US benchmark were set for weekly gains of nearly 6%. Both were on track for their biggest weekly increase since the week ending Oct. 13 after the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.

Oil was also boosted this week by a larger than expected drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. The depletion in inventories, especially around the NYMEX futures delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma and across the Midwest, could create a squeeze on nearby futures prices.

Supply concerns are evident in the structure of Brent futures. The premium of the first-month contract to the sixth on both Brent and WTI rose to the highest since November, indicating a perception of tighter prompt supply.

A potential fuel supply disruption after a Ukrainian drone attack on an export-oriented oil refinery in southern Russia also supported prices. On the demand side, the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, registered faster than expected economic growth in the fourth quarter, data showed on Thursday. Sentiment was also buoyed this week by China’s latest measures to boost growth.

Traders, however, bet that the U.S. central bank is more likely to start its round of rate cuts in May, rather than March, weighing on crude futures. Prices dipped earlier in the session on hopes oil shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could ease after Chinese officials asked Iran to help rein in attacks on ships by the Iran-aligned Houthis or risk harming business relations with Beijing.

The United States risks some exposure to China’s economic slowdown and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, but this appears contained, the White House National Economic Council director said on Friday, adding the U.S. economy is “upbeat.”