Oil Extends Decline as Supply Concerns Weigh, OPEC+ Meeting in Focus

Oil prices fell for a third straight session on Friday, heading for their first weekly loss in three weeks, as markets weighed the prospect of higher supply and unexpected U.S. inventory builds against lingering geopolitical risks.

Prices Edge Lower, Weekly Losses Loom

By 08:10 GMT, Brent crude futures slipped 0.5% to $66.64 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.5% to $63.15. Both benchmarks are set for losses this week, with Brent down 2.2% and WTI down 1.3%.

The decline follows Wednesday’s U.S. government data showing crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, compared with expectations for a draw.

OPEC+ Production in Spotlight

Adding pressure, Reuters reported that eight members of OPEC+ will consider raising output at Sunday’s meeting. Such a move could see the group begin unwinding a second layer of cuts — around 1.65 million barrels per day, equal to 1.6% of global demand — more than a year ahead of schedule.

John Evans of oil broker PVM said there are “increasing stories and signs of a future where feedstock supply is unlikely to be a problem,” underscoring expectations of ample supply in the coming months.

Refining Margins, Demand Concerns

Analysts at BMI noted that strength in refining margins had supported oil prices in recent months, but warned margins will likely tighten as demand growth slows and refiners enter seasonal maintenance cycles.

Geopolitics Still a Risk Premium

Despite the bearish sentiment, supply risks remain. U.S. President Donald Trump urged European leaders on Thursday to stop buying Russian oil, highlighting the geopolitical risk premium still embedded in the market.

Any disruption to Russian crude exports — whether through sanctions, tariffs, or conflict — could quickly tighten global supply and push prices higher, countering the recent bearish momentum.