October Private Payrolls Beat Expectations Amid Hurricane and Strike Concerns

In October, U.S. private payroll growth exceeded forecasts, adding 233,000 jobs, as reported by the ADP National Employment Report. This growth followed an upwardly revised increase of 159,000 in September, well above the 114,000 jobs economists had anticipated. The ADP report, created with Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab, precedes Friday’s comprehensive U.S. employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Despite the ADP’s history of underestimating private payrolls compared to the BLS, October’s employment was potentially constrained by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as strikes in the aerospace sector. According to a Reuters survey, private payrolls are projected to increase by 90,000 jobs for the month, with nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 115,000. The unemployment rate is forecasted to hold steady at 4.1%.