NZD/USD set to move back to 0.70 by early 2023

The New Zealand dollar has been the worst-performing G10 currency in the past month. However, economists at ING expect NZD/USD to climb back toward 0.70 by early 2023 as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to deliver 200bp of additional tightening by year-end.

Key Quotes

“The impact of lockdowns in China may end up being less severe than expected, thanks to Beijing’s fiscal and economic support, and some negatives may be priced out of NZD later in the year.”

“The RBNZ may deliver another 50bp in hikes given a tight labour market and inflation at 6.9%.”

“We expect 200bp of additional tightening by year-end, which should help NZD/USD move back to 0.70 by early 2023.”