Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
Dubai TV hosted Mohammed Hashad, Head of Research and Development at Noor Capital, and a member of the US Association of Technical Analysts, to comment on and shed light on market movements.
United States
The Dow Jones saw a boost following Microsoft’s recent announcement of a new update to the Bing application, along with other technological advancements. This news had a notable impact on the index’s movement. From a technical standpoint, the index received strong support above the 40,680 level. Positive momentum is being driven by simple moving averages, supported by encouraging signals from the Relative Strength Index, which is maintaining the immediate upward trend. As a result, I believe there’s a strong likelihood of the index rising towards 41,100. If it surpasses this level, we could see an acceleration of the upward trend towards 41,300, as long as the index remains above 40,680. Should it fall below this level, a retest of 40,250 might be on the horizon.
Euro
The euro has been attempting to climb against the US dollar, but these efforts have yet to succeed. The pair remains stable below a key resistance level at 1.1880, which aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. Simple moving averages continue to exert downward pressure on the price, suggesting the possibility of further declines. Should the pair drop below 1.1840, it could pave the way for a move towards 1.1810, with potential losses extending to 1.1775. Monitoring the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level will be crucial for assessing the extent of this correction.
Gold
Gold has gained significantly amid speculation about a potential 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with an 88% chance of occurring by September. However, I personally anticipate the rate cut will happen in December instead. Gold has also been bolstered by ongoing political and geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, driving its price towards $2,400 per ounce. Despite this, I believe the downward corrective trend remains intact as long as intraday trading stays below $2,395. The presence of a negative double top pattern on the four-hour chart suggests that breaking below $2,366 could lead to further losses this week, with a target of $2,324, provided the price remains below $2,410. A breach of $2,410 could disrupt the bearish technical outlook and lead to a retest of $2,450 and $2,480.
Japanese Yen and the Bank of Japan
The narrowing gap between US Treasury yields and those of Japan is worth noting as we await the Bank of Japan’s announcement tomorrow. There is speculation about a potential interest rate hike, though I believe it will be modest, possibly around ten basis points. This could strengthen the Japanese yen, bringing it to its highest level against the US dollar in about two months. I expect this trend to continue to levels around 151.90 and 151.10 until the Bank of Japan’s decision is announced.
Oil
Concerns about a supply shortage continue to loom over the oil markets. However, the potential return of Trump to the White House raises fears of protectionist policies against China, which could negatively affect global oil consumption. Consequently, I believe the downward trend in oil prices may persist this week. Currently, prices are holding below the broken support level, which has turned into resistance at around $78.65, with a direct target of $75.50 per barrel.
