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Dubai TV hosted Mohammed Hashad, Head of Research and Development at Noor Capital, and a member of the US Association of Technical Analysts, to comment on and shed light on market movements, especially the American markets, which recorded further gains following the assassination attempt on Trump and amid ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire in the Middle East.
US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the upcoming presidential elections in November. I believe this decision was influenced by numerous demands from members of the Democratic Party, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. This follows the last debate between him and Donald Trump, where negative feedback on his health and mental performance surfaced. Additionally, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump may have swayed public opinion in his favor, impacting market expectations.
In my opinion, it is premature to make any bets or assumptions about the future of American economic policy or the overall performance of the US economy. The coming months might bring significant changes that could affect public morale.
This Friday, we anticipate crucial data from the United States on personal consumption and gross domestic product, which will be significant for the US Federal Reserve. Some analysts predict a change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy by the end of this month, while others suggest September. I speculate that the changes will occur in December, with a potential reduction in interest rates. Jerome Powell has consistently stated that he will not cut rates until sustainable inflation reaches two percent.
Regarding the upcoming presidential elections, if Trump wins, what key issues and decisions do you think he will prioritize?
In terms of international policies, I believe Trump will focus on two main areas that could reduce inflation in Europe by curbing consumer spending and boosting production efficiency. He likely has a clear plan to address the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Domestically, he might prioritize cutting the government budget, deregulating federal agencies, and imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, ranging from ten to sixty percent. Other important issues include immigration regulations, the minimum wage, interest rates, and corporate taxes.
Given all these factors, how do you think gold prices will move in the coming period?
Gold prices are influenced by many factors, including the presidential elections and interest rates. If Jerome Powell starts lowering interest rates sooner than expected, it will likely benefit gold. Despite recent uncertainties in the US political scene, I believe we might see further rises in gold prices in the long term due to ongoing geopolitical and political tensions.
