Noor Capital | Mohammed Hashad Interview on Dubai TV – April 17, 2025

Amid ascending warnings that the ongoing trade war could lead to a recession, Mohammed Hashad, Chief Strategist at Noor Capital and Member of the American Association of Technical Analysts, commented on the latest developments in markets and key financial assets during an interview on Dubai TV.

As markets anticipate the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting, Hashad emphasized that traders and investors are closely watching the ECB. Most expectations point to a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, marking the third consecutive cut and the seventh within a year. Hashad believes the focus should be on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, which serves as a critical key to understanding the Eurozone’s monetary policy direction in the near future.

Regarding the Eurozone’s overall economic situation, Hashad noted that it has begun to improve and perform well, as reflected in economic activity indicators such as the services and manufacturing PMI readings. On inflation, a notable slowdown was recorded at 2.2% in March 2025. Concerning the trade war, Hashad believes it will significantly impact central banks’ decisions, particularly the ECB’s, and he expects the ECB to continue cutting rates until they reach a range of 1.75% in the coming months.

Regarding oil prices, which were observed attempting to recover on Thursday from losses in previous trading sessions, and whether this represents a temporary rise, Hashad commented: “Oil is struggling to climb on Thursday, stabilizing above $62 per barrel, marking its first weekly gain since early April. Oil has significantly benefited from positive Chinese data that exceeded expectations, alongside substantial industrial production growth at a notable 5.9% reading. Additionally, renewed concerns over supply disruptions following Donald Trump’s decision to impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, targeting small independent refineries operating in China, have positively impacted oil prices.”

Hashad added: “However, from my personal perspective, these gains may be temporary amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, which could weaken oil demand in the coming months.”

On gold’s performance, which slightly declined on Thursday but remains at historically unprecedented levels, Hashad stated that gold reached $3,357 per ounce, achieving a 27% gain in 2025. On Wednesday, gold prices surged by over $107 in a single session following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell’s hawkish tone regarding tariffs, which could reignite trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, poses a significant threat. This environment drives investors to seek safe-haven assets, including well-known currencies like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc, and safe-haven assets like gold to hedge against market volatility. Hashad further noted: “Today, we saw minor profit-taking that led gold to give up some gains, but the overall directional trend remains bullish, especially if the escalation in tariff issues persists.”

Regarding the performance of the U.S. stock market, which has recently experienced sharp volatility and its impact on major indices, some of which suffered significant losses, Hashad said: “We’ve seen the three major U.S. market indices decline significantly amid escalating tensions between the world’s two largest economies—the U.S. and China—with the possibility of tariffs exceeding 145% and U.S. sanctions on DeepSea. This upward momentum was further fueled by the sharp tone of Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday, signaling the potential for continued economic slowdown and the possibility of U.S. inflation rising again.”