Noor Capital | Mohammad Hashad’s Interview on Dubai TV – June 24, 2024

Interviewed by Dubai TV, Muhammad Hashad; Head of the Research and Development Department at Noor Capital and member of the US Association of Technical Analysts, commented and analyzed the performance of some key assets in the financial markets, especially the noticeable rally in the US dollar, and whether it was able to achieve more gains in today’s transactions. Hashad also addressed the reasons that supported the dollar’s performance in the last trading week and whether it is related to interest rate bets and trends.

Hashad explained that the US Dollar Index (DXY) had already achieved noticeable gains at the end of last week’s trading, trying to consolidate these gains since the opening of this week’s trading, as the dollar is receiving support from the rise in US Treasury bond yields as well as some positive economic data that may have an influence on interest rate path in the future.

DXY

Hashad also pointed out that the Dollar Index, against a basket of major currencies, is stable around the 105.80 mark, supported by the rise in ten-year bond yields, which recorded a good level at 4.73 points. He also pointed to the noticeable expansion in the services and manufacturing sectors in the United States, and specifically mentioned the manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMIs), which rose to 51.7, in addition to the expansion in the service sector, which touched its best level in a year at the level of 53.4.


It is likely that all of these factors pushed the dollar to further gains, in addition to the statements inclined to tighten monetary policy by members of the US Federal Reserve, reflecting the possibility that interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Crude Oil Price Action

Asked about the prices of American crude oil, hovering now at their highest level in six weeks, and whether the markets will actually witness a noticeable recovery in the short term, and the reasons for this rise, Hashad answered: “US crude oil attacked the $80 per barrel level at its highest level in seven weeks. Hashad noted that there is prevalent optimism in the markets regarding the possibility of a recovery or improvement in demand for US crude, especially in the wake of reports issued by the International Energy Agency, which indicated a decline in stockpiles in large quantities, as well as the reemergent geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as this gives some signals of possible supply disruption from Russia.

Hashad believes that the most important thing is the clear improvement in Chinese retail sales. There has been a jump in Chinese retail sales to the level of 3.7, and this is evidence of the strength of consumption, in addition to the positive developments in the real estate sector. He also believes that amid these positive factors, the markets may witness during… This week, a barrel of oil reached new levels around $84 after crude oil established a good support floor above the $79 level.

JPY, BoJ

In response to a question about the performance of the Japanese yen, which is declining at an important psychological level, Hashad explained that the reasons for these movements are related to monetary policy and the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan. He pointed out that the yen is approaching the barrier of 160 yen per dollar after postponing the decision to reduce bond purchases. He also believes that this is a level that the Bank of Japan will not allow to be exceeded easily. Hashad suggests that Bank of Japan will make interventions in the coming weeks and that its decisions will have more flexibility to adjust the course of easing, especially after it faced the problem of weak consumption.

Bitcoin

Hashad analyzed and commented on the performance of cryptocurrencies, and the recent decline of Bitcoin, which recorded a new bottom. He also touched on the losses of the most famous cryptocurrency. He said that those losses, which reached -5%, are most likely the result of profit taking amid a corrective decline as investors move away from high-risk assets. Chief among them are cryptocurrencies.