Noor Capital | Mohammad Hashad Interview on the Dubai TV – June 26, 2023

Dubai TV interviewed Mohamed Hashad, Director of Research and Development at Noor Capital and member of the US Association of Technical Analysts, to comment on whether the developments of geopolitical events clearly affect the performance of stock markets and the performance of commodities; Hashad began his commenting on oil prics, since the repercussions of events were clear on the performance of black gold prices, which were seen rising amid fears of a shortage of supplies. “The rises, after oil tried to benefit from the positive data for inventories for the first time in weeks, but in general, there are several negative factors that still besiege prices on top of which is: the specter of oversupply in the markets, and this is one of the most threatening factors for oil prices”, he noted.

Hashad added, “Iran’s oil production also increased by 2.9 million barrels last May, and there is a package of negative data that pressures prices. We also witnessed a significant decline in the service and manufacturing purchasing managers’ price index in each of the major economies such as the United States, Europe and England. The main reason is fears of the global economic slowdown, as you mentioned, with continued monetary tightening by central banks.”

Regarding the statements of OPEC officials that production will increase until the year 2045, and whether these statements would reassure the markets, Hashad commented by saying: “In the long run, this is true, taking into account how far the year 2045 is from us, but OPEC has kept its expectations unchanged for the year 2023, at the level of 2.6% without any change”.

As for gold prices that observers see as rising, and what could be expected in light of the conditions and anxiety experienced by investors, but there are the most prominent expectations that gold prices could reach $2100 an ounce, so, asked whether it is expected that gold prices will actually reach these levels, Hashad explained: “In only one case; namely when the major central banks begin to stop the quantitative tightening program, as we have seen gold at its lowest level in three months and the largest decline in almost six months, down to the level of $1910 per ounce, with central banks continuing to raise interest rates. The high yields of US Treasury bonds, which the investor prefers at the present time, as a guaranteed security with returns that are better than those of gold, but when central banks stop raising interest rates, we may see an ounce of gold above $2000 per ounce”.

Regarding the US dollar, which was seen, against gold’s rises, in the red territory today, what exactly caused the dollar’s weakness now, although there is a return to talking about raising interest rates, meaning that it is logical for the markets to see the dollar’s surge, Hashad indicated a marginal decline in the dollar on monthly basis is seen, this may be due to dollar profit-taking, and indeed the dollar rose significantly against the basket of currencies after the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that raising interest rates is inevitably coming and that the last meeting when the interest rate was fixed is only an assessment of the economic situation and that the Fed will be raising interest until the end of 2023.