Noor Capital | Mohammed Hashad Interview on Dubai TV – November 27, 2023

Mohammed Hashad, Head of Research and Development at Noor Capital and member of the American Association of Technical Analysts, commented on the key developments in the markets and the performance of the most important assets, in an interview on Dubai TV.

Expected Data

Hashad explained that the markets are awaiting high-impact data this week that will clearly affect the currency market and the US dollar in particular. We start with the Consumer Confidence Index, which is an important indicator that will reflect the extent of confidence in the performance of the American economy and its ability to cope with high interest levels.

We are also awaiting the consumer spending index, which is the preferred indicator of inflation and will clarify the path of the Federal Reserve during its next meeting. From Canada, the markets are awaiting labor market data in addition to what the oil markets are awaiting, which is the OPEC+ meeting.

What are the expected scenarios for inflation data?

Hashad said that it is obvious, so far, that raising interest rates has begun to lead inflation to slow down. Most economic data also indicate that the Fed will not raise interest rates during the next meeting, especially with the decline in manufacturing activity in addition to the decline in orders for durable goods under these circumstances.

Accordingly, Hashad believes that the Fed will not raise interest rates. Rather, it wants to stabilize interest rates, but Hashad does not rule out that if the economic conditions or prevailing conditions in the markets prepare for the Fed to raise interest rates later. Until 2024, the Federal Reserve may be clear in its latest speech that it wants sustainable inflation at 2% levels.

US Stocks

US stocks have rebounded in recent times. About the reason for that, Hashad mentioned that for the fourth week in a row, US stocks continue to achieve gains, as they received support from growing expectations regarding the end of the monetary tightening cycle, or the possibility that it is about to end.

It also found upward momentum from the rise of some US stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Furthermore it. Risk appetite has clearly rebounded, which was evident in the VIX index, which is responsible for stock market fluctuations, to settle at its lowest levels since January 2020.

Gold Prices

Commerz Bank expects a rate cut in the middle of next year. Asked if that happens, will gold maintain its levels above $2,000? Hashad pointed out that gold prices on Monday reached levels of $2,018 per ounce, which is its highest level in six months, as it benefited greatly from the decline of the US dollar and also benefited from the decline in US Treasury bond yields.

According to Hashad, this week in particular, growth and wages data will determine whether gold will maintain its current highs or not. If the wage data is positive and increases the possibility of the Fed stabilizing interest rates, gold will continue to rise and we may see levels of $2,050 per ounce. It may also reach the $2,080 level.

Oil Prices

A state of negativity dominated oil prices ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Asked what the expected scenario will be, Hashad explained that the expected scenario is that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia will also continue the voluntary reduction plan, so that the Kingdom will reduce production by approximately one million barrels per day until mid-2024.

Hashad believes that if a solution is not reached regarding the points of contention between the producers Especially in Africa, this may lead to a further decline in oil prices, but only if these disputes are resolved. Saudi Arabia has completed its plan to reduce production, and we may witness a rise in oil prices above $80 per barrel again.