Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
Interviewed on Dubai TV on Monday, Mohammed Hashad, Head of Research and Development at Noor Capital and a member of the American Association of Technical Analysts, commented on the most important developments in the global financial markets on the first day of trading week, and most notably:
The impact of the Russian decision to cut half a million barrels
Russia has become a significant player in the oil markets, and all decisions issued by the Russian side must be monitored. We saw strong movements in crude oil prices, recording more than 3% gains. The Russian side surprised the markets with the possibility of reducing production by half a million barrels per day, equivalent to 5% of the Russian output, significantly impacting oil prices. It started attacking the $80 level, and concerns about supply shortages returned, and thus we witnessed a rise in oil prices during the past week.
Will oil prices reach $100 per barrel as some analysts predicted?
The current market data indicate the possibility of an increase in prices with the continuation of geopolitical tensions and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, in addition to the reopening of the Chinese economy, as China is the second largest consumer of oil in the world, which increases the global oil demand.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has raised oil shipments to Asia. This is because it expects the return of Chinese demand For oil, which is one reason that pushes a barrel of oil to 100 dollars. It may even reach 110 dollars a barrel during the year 2023, and I expect this to happen as soon as the central banks begin to abandon raising interest rates.
How likely is gold to return to $2,000 this year?
Data in the markets indicate that we may see an ounce of gold around the $2,000 level when central banks begin to end the wave of tightening, with the continuation of political tensions, so gold is considered a safe haven for investors.
Interest rates in the United States
Some expectations indicate that the interest rate may reach 6%, and the markets are waiting for inflation data this week. We may witness a rise in inflation. We may see levels of 6%, especially with the Fed targeting the 2% target, and the inflation target will not be achieved until demand declines. I expect inflation to rise tomorrow and, thus, monetary policy tightening.
