Noor Capital | Interview with Mohammed Hashad on Dubai TV – August 26, 2024

Dubai TV interviewed Mohammed Hashad, Head of Research and Development at Noor Capital and a member of the American Society of Technical Analysts. Hashad discussed recent market developments, asset performance, and investment tools, including oil, gold, and cryptocurrencies. He also shared his expectations regarding monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.

Impact of Jerome Powell’s Statements

When asked about the market’s reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Forum, Hashad replied that the speech had a significant impact. The U.S. dollar, in particular, experienced a notable decline, reaching its lowest level in 13 months. Powell’s pessimistic tone suggested the possibility of a 25-basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September.

Hashad believes that Powell recognizes the need to reduce interest rates and end the monetary tightening cycle. The decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields, following disappointing U.S. employment data, further supports this view and hints at a potential recession in the U.S. labor market.

Oil Gains

Regarding the recent rise in oil prices, Hashad attributed it to both geopolitical tensions and the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates. He predicted that oil prices could continue to rise, potentially reaching $80 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude.

Gold Gains

Gold prices have also benefited from the current market conditions, including geopolitical tensions and the potential for a less restrictive monetary policy. Hashad believes that gold prices could still appreciate, maintaining their current levels above $2,550 per ounce.

Yen Performance, Bank of Japan

Hashad expressed a bearish outlook for the Japanese yen, expecting further declines in the coming weeks. He believes that the Bank of Japan may intervene to support the yen, but the overall trend is likely to be downward.

Cryptocurrency Performance

Hashad attributed the recent rise in Bitcoin prices to the decline in the U.S. dollar and continued Bitcoin purchases by the government of El Salvador. He also noted that Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House could be supportive of cryptocurrencies, as he has previously expressed support for the industry.

The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events

Looking ahead, Hashad highlighted several important economic events that could impact markets this week. These include the initial reading of U.S. GDP, the Consumer Confidence Index, weekly unemployment benefit claims data, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, a key inflation indicator, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.