Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
In an interview conducted by CNBC Television, Mohamed Hashad, Head of Research and Development at Noor Capital and a member of the American Association of Technical Analysts, commented on and analysed key assets’ performance in the financial markets.
Q: The year 2024 was remarkable for U.S. indices, with the Dow Jones achieving gains of over 13%. What are the expectations for the Dow Jones in 2025, especially since we didn’t witness a significant rise last week as anticipated during the Santa Rally?
A: Indeed, the Dow Jones achieved some gains by the end of last Friday’s session and is consistently attempting to climb. Currently, it recorded its lowest level above the 43,000-point threshold, which I believe is a strong support level. Positive indicators suggest the possibility of further gains during this week’s trading.
As long as we don’t witness any negative trades below the 43,000 level, which serves as the pivotal support for current trading levels, we might see further upward movement toward 43,250 to 43,420. Overall, it seems that markets are beginning to anticipate the continued recovery of the U.S. economy, which would generally benefit U.S. indices throughout this year.
Q: We’ve discussed the economic data and the return of growth in the Eurozone Services PMI. What are your expectations for the euro’s movements, especially following the recent strength of the U.S. dollar?
A: The euro continues to decline against the U.S. dollar, touching its lowest level since November 2002. While it has found a solid support level at this point, the positive momentum remains limited. Simple moving averages are exerting downward pressure on the price, and with trading stabilizing below the key resistance level of 1.0375, I believe the bearish scenario is more likely this week, targeting 1.0170.
However, if the price successfully breaks above the 1.0375 level, we may see attempts to build a short-term bullish wave targeting 1.0506.
Q: Currencies were the biggest losers last year, with many recording over 10% declines against the dollar. What are the expectations for these movements, especially with investors now calling for a slowdown in rate hikes?
A: After several sessions of gains, it seems that some currency pairs have encountered strong resistance, particularly at the psychological barrier of 158. I expect a downward correction during this week’s trading, targeting 155.70 as an initial goal. However, the critical point remains at 158. Any trading above this level could support the continuation of the upward trend.
Q: Gold was the biggest winner last year, achieving record gains. What are your expectations for gold, particularly given its concurrent rise with the U.S. dollar and bond yields?
A: Gold recorded gains in 2024 exceeding 27%. For today’s trading, I see stability above the support level of $2,630 per ounce. I would need to see a four-hour candle close above this level to confirm the bullish trend.
Additionally, a technical bullish pattern (double bottom) supports the likelihood of further gains, and I expect the primary upward trend to return to levels of $2,665, followed by $2,711. However, close monitoring of the $2,630 level is essential. Any four-hour candle closing below this level could lead to a retest of $2,600. Still, the general directional movement remains bullish, especially with the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates.
