Noor Capital | Interview with Mohammad Hashad on Dubai TV – March 4, 2024

Mohammed Hashad, Head of Research and Development at Noor Capital and member of the US Association of Technical Analysts, commented on the key developments across financial markets and the performance of the most important assets, in an interview on Dubai TV.

Asked about cryptocurrencies, in light of Bitcoin’s recent surge to the $65,000 level, which is a strong jump since approximately 2020, and what could be the causes of that surge, Hashad noted that Bitcoin was able to achieve the highest gains since 2020, specifically since December, and ended last February’s transactions with gains amounting to approximately 45%.

Hashad also believes that Bitcoin has witnessed widespread demand that it has not seen for a long time, as the recent decision of the US Securities and Exchange Commission helped the continuation of the upward momentum for Bitcoin.

Hashad believes that the SEC’s move to allow exchange-traded funds to begin trading operations will allow many investors to invest in Bitcoin without having to store it directly. “What also contributed to Bitcoin’s surge above the $65,000 level is the looming halving date next April, which may lead to a halving of mining rewards and thus may lead to a lack of supply, and we may witness more rises in the future,” Hashad added.

Among the surprises markets witnessed was the rise of the Nikkei Index to record levels, breaking the 40,000 barrier. Asked what factors are driving Japanese stocks higher, and whether this is related to the expected change in monetary policy and the weakness of the Japanese yen, Hashad explained that the Nikkei Index recorded its highest level ever, exceeding 40,109 points, and there are two reasons behind this rise, firstly, the improvement in investor sentiment, in general, and the resort to high-risk investment instruments, especially stocks. Secondly; the Japanese government’s announcement of the end of the stagflation era, which is the main reason that supported Nikkei’s recent move.

Moreover, investors and observers are awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday and Thursday as well as the US NFP print on Friday, and the markets are awaiting the next step on rate policy of the US Fed in June or July. Asked if it is possible that the picture will change after Jerome Powell’s statements this week, Hashad pointed out that he believes that Jerome Powell will maintain the same stance and will favour monetary tightening.

According to Hashad, Fed’s Powell will not change his tone that he has been adopting since January, as the Fed still needs more evidence that sustainable inflation has reached 2%. Hashad also believes that Fed will not change monetary policy despite the rise in expectations in the markets by 51% that the policymakers will cut interest rates next June.

But there are expectations that the year 2024 will not witness any interest rate cuts, asked about his opinion in this regard, Hashad said he disagrees with this proposition because the US economy has begun to show signs of flexibility, which may allow the Fed; Jerome Powell and Co. to reduce interest rates, but in only one case. It is when they are able to see sustainable inflation at 2%.

Asked about gold, which broke upward in the short term, Hashad indicated that the motives behind the rise in gold are represented by the decline of the US dollar after more downbeat data, as it rose on the shoulders of US Treasury bond yields, which declined in all their terms, as those with ten-year term fell by 2,254%, breaching the $2,100 level.

Hashad also said that the recent move in yields could consolidate gold’s gains and markets could expect to see the precious metal touching the previous peak at $2,140 per ounce, but it is important to await US jobs data as well as Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony.