Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Forecast From 6 Major Banks

The US jobs report for January is due out at 13:30 GMT. here are the forecasts of economists and researchers of 10 major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

Deutsche Bank

“Our US economists are now forecasting a +200K increase in nonfarm payrolls after total jobless claims fell by 1.73 million since the last report and the ADP print surprised to the upside (+174K). This comes after the -140K decrease in jobs back in December. However, that increase likely won’t be enough to shift the unemployment rate, which they think will remain unchanged at 6.7%, so it would be no surprise if the Biden administration seize upon the jobs report to pressure Congress to act swiftly on their stimulus proposal.”

ING

“We expect a +100K read, which is slightly above consensus, but unlikely to generate much market excitement.”

NBF

“Hiring could have remained depressed in the month judging from stagnation in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits between the December and January reference periods. Combined with still-high layoff numbers, this may have translated into a 75K drop in payrolls. The household survey is expected to show a similar pullback in employment which would be consistent with a 0.2% increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, assuming the participation rate stayed put at 61.5%.”

Westpac

“We look for a decline of 50K. If the vaccine rollout occurs as planned and additional stimulus is passed by Congress, this job loss will reverse quickly. In contrast, the recovery back to full employment will prove long and difficult. Not only is the unemployment rate currently almost twice its pre-pandemic level, but this is with participation 2ppts lower than before COVID-19. Employment will need strong, sustained gains to recover, and only then will wages stand a chance of growing robustly.”

Citibank

“We expect a solid 250K rebound in employment in January. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% MoM while the unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly in January, largely reflecting softer employment in the household survey.”

Wells Fargo

“We are upwardly revising our January payroll forecast to a gain of 60K (previously a decline of 20K).”