NFP Preview: Forecasts from Three Major Banks

Non-farm Payrolls is due on Friday, July 2 at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of 3 major banks

ING

“Consensus is paring its expectations down from million-plus figures last month to 700K now. Our house forecast is even more subdued at 550K – much the same as last month. If we are closer to the mark than the consensus, then the recent spell of 10Y yields back above 1.5% could prove short-lived. But then again, this is payrolls, where anything could happen, so you can’t rule out some upside surprise too.”

CIBC

“June should have seen some recruitment efforts by employers over previous months pay off in terms of attracting workers, while students off for the summer and new graduates could have provided a new pool of labor to draw from. Additionally, higher wages could have worked to entice many back into the labor force, resulting in an acceleration in hiring to 785K in June. That is in line with the steeper drop in continuing jobless claims seen through the reference week, but would still leave a 6.8mn gap to pre-covid levels of employment, as unemployment benefit top-ups remain in place in many large states.”

TDS

“We forecast up 800K, following 559K. Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from fewer than usual end-of-school-year layoffs. Our forecast implies a still-sizable 6.8mn net decline in payrolls from the pre-COVID level.”