NFP Preview: Forecasts From Four Major Banks

Here are the forecasts by the economists and researchers of four major banks regarding NFP report.

JP Morgan

“We are looking for a 575K gain in jobs. Expect a drop in the US unemployment rate to 5%. The driver for an above-consensus forecast is the expected rebound in the leisure and hospitality sectors.”

Deutsche Bank

“We are forecasting a pickup in September, with NFP growing by 400K, and the unemployment rate ticking down to a post-pandemic low of 5.1%. Remember in the weak report last month, yields rose on the day as markets focused on the wage increases rather than the poor headline number.”

TDS

“Signals have been mixed, and large swings in seasonal adjustment factors make forecasting payrolls especially challenging this month, but we expect a pickup relative to the 235K rise in August (which will probably be revised up a bit). Our 525K forecast allows for a 175K rise for government – assuming some normalization in education at the start of the new school year.”

Westpac

“September is likely to see a robust bounce in job creation, we forecast a rise of 600K. However, part of this gain may instead come through revisions to August and July. To end 2022, if payrolls average a gain of around 450K a month then, even with participation returning near its pre-pandemic rate, the unemployment rate will tend to its full employment level. We expect underemployment to also follow this trend, tightening up the labour market and supporting moderate gains in wages hence.”