NFP expected to lose steam in October

On Friday, the US official employment report will be released. Analysts expect an increase in payrolls of 220K, slightly above the market consensus of 200K. They see the dollar trading in the direction of the data.

Payrolls are expected to have continued to lose steam in October, reflecting modest deceleration versus the 263K print registered in September.

Analysts look for October’s deceleration in job creation to also be reflected in a jump in the unemployment rate to 3.7% following its new drop to 3.5% in September. They are also forecasting wage growth to accelerate to 0.4% m/m, but to slow to 4.7% on a y/y basis.


The US dollar should trade in the direction of the data, though our above-consensus forecast is likely not enough to justify major upside pressure. Asymmetric reaction profile on weaker data, though we think there is some limit to the downside as CPI will be the main focus next week.