NFP data expected to lose momentum

On October 6 at 12:30 GMT, the US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release its employment report for September. Major bank economists and researchers anticipate that nonfarm payrolls will rise by 170K in September, down from 187K in August, and that the unemployment rate would drop down to 3.7%.

Earnings per hour are anticipated to be constant at 4.3% annually. Deutsche Bank projects a 150K increase for September, with earnings growth remaining at +0.2% and the unemployment rate nudging up to 3.9%.

Commerzbank projects a 160K increase in employment, with the unemployment rate expected to have decreased to 3.7% as a result of the trend in labour force growth being just 100K. The economy is not forecast to enter a recession next year, and employment is not anticipated to increase considerably until then.

If soft indicators like the Composite PMI from S&P Global are any indication, NBF anticipates that hiring may have picked up in the past month. The fall in unemployment claims between the August and September reference periods suggests that layoffs may have marginally decreased.

With the household survey indicating a similar rise and job creation predicted to have accelerated to 200K in the month, the unemployment rate is expected to have decreased by one tick.

In the upcoming batch of US payroll employment data, RBC Economics anticipates the unemployment rate to remain stable at 3.8% and employment to increase by 177K, which is a little less than the 187K increase in August.


Citi anticipates a high 240K gain in NFP in September, mostly due to seasonal problems that caused a lower 105K increase in June. According to Wells Fargo’s predictions, the US economy added 150K jobs in September. The labour force is predicted to have slightly decreased in September after increasing in August.