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The US will release its April employment figures on Friday, May 6. The NFP report is expected to show that the economy added 391K new jobs, below the previous 431K but still a good figure. The unemployment rate is expected to have contracted to 3.5% from 3.6% in the previous month. Also, Average Hourly Earnings are expected at 5.5% YoY.
Economic Data
US worker productivity fell at its steepest pace since 1947 in the first quarter, while growth in unit labour costs accelerated, indicating that rising wage pressures will continue contributing to keeping inflation elevated for a while. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, plunged at a 7.5% annualized rate last quarter, the deepest since the third quarter of 1947, the Labour Department said on Thursday. Data for the fourth quarter was revised slightly lower to show productivity growing at a 6.3% rate instead of the previously reported 6.6% pace.
There were 200,000 initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending on 30 April, according to the latest data released by the Department of Labour on Thursday. That was above expectations for a slight rise from 181,000 in the prior week to 182,000. That brought the four-week average number of initial claims higher to 188,000 from 180,000 a week earlier.
Other Developments
Employment is one of the two pillars of the US Federal Reserve’s mandate. The other is inflation, which is far more concerning these days. Back in January, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that US labor market conditions were consistent with maximum employment. On Wednesday, and following the May meeting, the statement noted that “job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.”
Oil prices rallied for a second straight session on Thursday, with front-month WTI futures briefly hitting their highest levels in more than one month above the $110 per barrel mark before more recently pulling back closer to $109.00.
Traders are citing the EU’s Russia oil embargo plan and OPEC+’s decision to stick to their usual output hike policy as supportive. At current levels, WTI is still more than $1.50 higher on the day. Market commentators cited concerns about a further drop in Russian output in the months ahead as the EU nears agreement on a plan that would phase out all Russian oil imports within six months.
Gold has extended its losses below solid resistance around $1890. The Gold Index is recording losses during the North American session, retreating from daily highs around $1909.66, amid a risk-off market sentiment.
Two central banks expressed worries about China, while the Bank of England foresees a GDP contraction on 2023 for the United Kingdom. At $1878.51 a troy ounce, XAU/USD is down 0.14% but below March’s 2022 lows at $1890.
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