Market Drivers – US Session, February 27

Mohamed Abdelhamid 28 February, 2024 6:27 am Commodities, Forex Market, Market Update

Markets seem to have entered a consolidative stage ahead of key data releases on both sides of the ocean, while Fed speakers and ECB officials equally appear aligned behind the idea of cutting rates later than the majority of investors anticipate.

The USD Index maintained its gradual leg lower in place, always around the key 200-day SMA near 103.70. On February 28, another revision of the Q4 GDP Growth Rate is due along with preliminary Goods Trade Balance results. Additionally, the Fed’s Bostic, Collins, and Williams are due to speak.

EUR/USD remained stuck around the mid-1.0800s against the backdrop of the generalized lack of direction in the FX universe. In the euro area, the final Consumer Confidence print, Economic Sentiment and Industrial Sentiment are all scheduled for February 28.

In line with the rest of its peers, GBP/USD traded in an irresolute fashion, just below 1.2700 the figure. In the UK, BoE’s C. Mann is only due to speak on February 28.

USD/JPY traded on the defensive amidst modest losses, although maintaining the trade above the 150.00 hurdle. On February 28, the final Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index are due on Wednesday.

AUD/USD exchanged gains with losses around the 0.6540 region. The RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator takes centre stage on February 28.

WTI prices added to Monday’s optimism and reclaimed the area once again beyond the $78.00 mark per barrel. On Wednesday, the EIA will publish its weekly report on US crude oil inventories.

Gold prices traded in a tight range around the $2,030 zone per troy ounce, while prices of the ounce of Silver kept the lower end of the range near $22.50.

The US stock markets closed mixed on Tuesday, as markets digested a 6.1% slump in the US Durable Goods Orders data.

What to watch on Wednesday:

Wednesday’s US GDP revision and personal spending data will be closely eyed before the key US PCE inflation data and India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data due on Thursday.

Markets are currently pricing in just about a 20% chance that the US Fed could begin easing rates in May, much lower than an over 90% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. For the June meeting, the probability for a rate cut now stands at about 60%, down from 70% seen a few days ago.

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