Market Drivers – US Session: Dollar Roars Back as Tariffs and Yields Steal the Show – March 25 Rundown

Developments and Data

The US Dollar extended its rebound, reaching two-week peaks near 104.40, buoyed by weekend tariff news, while fears of a US economic slowdown appear to have eased slightly. The US Dollar Index (DXY) secured its fourth straight day of gains, decisively breaking past 104.00, supported by a notable rise in US yields across the board. Key events to watch include the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence data, alongside New Home Sales, the FHFA House Price Index, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the API’s weekly US crude oil inventory report. In Europe, markets will closely track Germany’s IFO Business Climate release. Across the Channel, the CBI Distributive Trades is the sole notable UK data point. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s Minutes will take center stage, while in Australia, attention turns to the 2025-26 Federal Budget.

Forex Space

EUR/USD stayed under pressure, slipping below the 1.0800 level to fresh three-week lows near 1.0780. GBP/USD bucked the trend, posting solid gains above 1.2900, lifted by strong UK data despite the Dollar’s strength. USD/JPY surged to a three-week high beyond 150.70, marking its third consecutive day of gains. AUD/USD snapped a four-day losing streak, briefly climbing past 0.6300.

Commodities

Renewed sanctions on Tehran pushed WTI oil prices above $69.00 per barrel, a three-week high. Gold prices pulled back from last week’s record peak, declining for the third day but holding near the critical $3,000 per troy ounce level. Silver prices hovered steady around $33.00 per ounce after three days of retreats.