Market Drivers – US Session, Dec. 4

Mohamed Abdelhamid 5 December, 2023 1:00 am Forex Market, Market Update

On a turbulent day, the US Dollar Index increased on Monday, closing at its highest level since November 23. The Greenback recovered during a reversal in commodities and higher Treasury yields, after beginning the week under pressure. Shortly before important US data, the DXY increased from around 103.00 to 103.80.

The JOLTS Job Openings report will be the first installment in the ongoing saga of US labour market data on Tuesday. The ISM Services PMI and the final PMI are also due. Later in the week, the ADP on Wednesday, the Jobless Claims on Thursday, and the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, are the next major jobs data releases.

EUR/USD extended its decline from above 1.1000 and found support at 1.0800. The short-term bias remains downward, but technical indicators offer signs of consolidation. Eurostat will release the Producer Price Index for October, which is expected to show a 0.2% increase with the annual rate rising from -12.4% to -9.4%.

USD/JPY rose from the lowest levels since September at 146.20 to 147.35, boosted by higher Treasury yields. The short-term trend is still bearish. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index is due on Tuesday.

The Swiss Franc weakened after inflation data from Switzerland showed a decline of 0.2% in the Consumer Price Index in November, bringing the annual rate to 1.4% down from 1.7% and below the expected 1.6%. USD/CHF had its best day in weeks, recovering from monthly lows to 0.8750.

GBP/USD found resistance again at the 1.2700 area and pulled back. The pair continues to trade sideways between 1.2700 and 1.2600, currently closer to the lower limit.

AUD/USD reversed from monthly highs affected by the stronger Dollar and the slide in commodities. The pair faces increasing resistance as it approaches 0.6700; on the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6580 emerges as a key support.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have its monetary policy meeting, and no change in rates is expected. The final Job Bank MI is also due, along with the Q3 Current Account balance.

After hitting a record high, gold pulled back sharply, falling to $2,020. From the top, it dropped more than $100. The decline could continue, especially if the price drops below $2,010, indicating that the selling pressure is still intense. Silver lost 3.75% on Monday, after a 5% slide from the multi-month high it reached after the weekly opening; XAG/USD ended around $24.50. The near-term outlook for metals is mixed, and volatility will likely remain high.

Bitcoin rose above $40,000 for the first time this year; BTC/USD stands near $42,000 with positive momentum intact, unaffected by the reversal in metals and the stronger Dollar.

During the Asian session, the key event will be the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. China’s Caixin Services PMI is due, along with the final PMIs. Eurozone will release wholesale inflation data. From the US, the JOLTS report and the ISM Services PMI are also due.

Economic Data

November’s Caixin Service PMI for China is scheduled, and a slight improvement from 50.4 to 50.8 is anticipated. Positive values may increase risk appetite, which would strengthen antipodean currencies in particular. Additionally due are the global PMI final readings, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

The FOMC meeting and important figures are scheduled for next week, so the markets won’t be hearing from Fed officials during these quiet times.

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