Market Drivers – US Session 18/11/2022

US President Joe Biden cautioned on Friday that ““it’s going to take time to get inflation back down to normal levels.”, but he assured that legislation he signed earlier this year will help limit costs for health care and energy.

However, he said that “in six short weeks, Americans are going to start to feel the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act,” the massive legislation that he signed in August.

Biden also made the remarks while meeting with business and labour leaders in the president’s first public event since coming back from an world trip to Egypt, Cambodia and Indonesia.

Gold retreated due to the US session’s risk-off mood, as European equities turned negatively, while Wall Street closed mixed.

Fed policymakers reiterated their commitment to taming inflation down. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that interest rates are not “sufficiently restrictive” and added that would be if the Federal Funds rate (FFR) hit the 5% to 5.25% area.

The US Dollar Index turned south to the red territory, down by 0.07%, at 106.621. US Treasury bond yields, namely the 10-year benchmark note rate, rise two bps, yielding 3.795%, putting a lid on gold price.

The USD/JPY pair finished the week almost flat, dropping in the last week from around 147.00 to 138.46, after the release of a softer inflation report in the United States. As a whole, the week’s data could indicate that the Fed might stop from rising rates. However, in the present week, the USD/JPY is staging a recovery. At the time of writing, the USDJPY is trading at 140.37.

Economic Data

The US National Association of Realtors reported that Existing Home Sales for October plunged a staggering 5.9%, below a 4.17% increase estimated by analysts. Home sales have fallen since February of 2022 due to the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary conditions as they try to curb stubbornly high inflation, which peaked around 9%. However, market sentiment remains positive throughout the session on the back of soft CPI, and PPI October reports.

Other Developments

Additional Fed officials are crossing wires, emphasizing the need for higher interest rates after two soft October inflation reports. At the time of writing, XAUUSD is trading at $1755, below its opening price by 0.24%.

Even though it’s an important milestone, XAUUSD could not capitalize on US Dollar (USD) weakness. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slope is turning south, suggesting that consolidation in the mid $1700-$1800 is likely, as buyers regain momentum, to challenge the $1800 psychological level.

XAUUSD’s key resistance levels lie at $1786, followed by $1800, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1802. On the other hand, XAUUSD support levels, the August 22 swing low at $1727.90, followed by the $1700 figure.

Federal Reserve and ECB officials hinting at unexpected shifts in December monetary policy meetings.

Also Read