Market Drivers – US Session 15/02/2023

Mohamed Abdelhamid 16 February, 2023 2:40 am Commodities, Forex Market, Market Update

The dollar benefited from renewed concerns about the continued US Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening spurring risk aversion. As American inflation eased just modestly in January, hopes for a Fed’s pivot faded. The United States published Retail Sales on Wednesday, which surged by 3% MoM in January, much better than anticipated. The figure provided fresh impetus to the USD and kept stock markets on the back foot.

The US dollar remained strong on Wednesday, with demand for the Greenback easing ahead of Wall Street’s close as stocks bounced from their intraday lows.

As for commodities; gold extended its February slide to $1,830.53 per ounce, now hovering around $1,836. Gold was under pressure on the firmer dollar on Wednesday. Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 16.3 million barrels for the week to February 10.

This compared with a build of 2.4 million barrels for the previous week, extending a string of weekly builds, some of them quite sizeable, which have pushed inventories above the five-year seasonal average. Brent crude is trading at $85.00 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate is changing hands for $78.70 per barrel. Both are down but earlier on the day, they were down by more than a percentage point from opening.

Economic Data

Earlier in the day, the UK reported that the annual CPI rose by 10.1% in January, easing from 10.5% in December, while core CPI was up 5.8% on a yearly basis from 6.3% previously. Easing inflation supports the case of an easIER path of tightening in the kingdom. GBP/USD is down to 1.2020.

European data missed expectations adding pressure on the Euro. Industrial Production contracted 1.7% YoY in December, while the Trade Balance in the same month posted a deficit of €18.1 billion. EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0660, now trading in the 1.0680 region

Key Developments

USD/CAD trades at 1.3390, with the Canadian dollar benefiting from a crude oil prices comeback. WTI trades at $78.60 a barrel after falling to $77.25. The EIA reported a large build in US stocks, up to 16.283 million barrels in the week ended February 10.

USD/JPY trades at 134.15, sharply up in the day. Higher US government bond yields provided support alongside comments from Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida earlier in the day. Kishida said that he expects the new Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor to keep the appropriate monetary policy, taking into account of economy, inflation and market situations.

The AUD/USD pair fell to 0.6864 but recovered the 0.6900 threshold ahead of the close amid the stocks’ bounce. Australian employment figures and inflation expectations coming up early Thursday.

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