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Market Drivers – US Session – 07/06/2023

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, citing persistent excess demand and increasing concerns that inflation could “get stuck” materially above the target. This decision follows the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hike on Tuesday, which also exceeded economic consensus. The upcoming week will see monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan.

In terms of data for Thursday’s Asian session, Japan’s Q1 GDP will be released along with New Zealand’s Q1 Manufacturing Sales and Australia’s trade data. Later in the day, the Eurozone’s GDP and employment figures will be released along with the weekly US Jobless Claims report.

The Fed remains in its blackout period, preventing markets from hearing any official comments. Recent data shows a weakening in the manufacturing sector, though there are no imminent signs of a recession. All eyes are now on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday, which is expected to be a key determinant for the Fed’s decision.

According to analysts at Wells Fargo, they still expect the delayed effects of monetary tightening and tighter credit availability to dampen economic growth. However, the enduring strength of the labor market prompted upward adjustments to their forecast for employment, real disposable income and consumption, shifting the expected start of the downturn closer to the end of this year.

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