Market Drivers – US Session 07/02/2023

Mohamed Abdelhamid 8 February, 2023 4:35 am Forex Market, Market Update

The US dollar extended its February rally throughout the first half of the day, but turned negative during the US trading session to end the day mixed, as Fed’s Jerome Powell participated in a moderated discussion at the Economic Club, Washington DC.

Key Developments

In his first State of the Union address since the mid-term elections, the US president will call for higher taxes on the wealthy and more social aid to the needy. Joe Biden planned to challenge the new House Republican majority on Tuesday night to work together with him to “finish the job” of repairing America’s unsettled economy and fragile democracy.

Powell started repeating his hawkish message, stating that policymakers would probably need to do further interest-rate increases indicating that the process is going to be “bumpy.”

Stronger than anticipated data will see the Fed raising rates accordingly. The US dollar swan dived as Wall Street broke into the green territory. Then, Powell added that strong labour market report, or higher inflation reports will result in the Fed raising rates by more than what is currently anticipated.

The dollar recovered as stocks collapsed to fresh daily lows, but then again changed course and finished the day with substantial gains.

The Euro was the weakest rival, with the pair ending the day at around 1.0710. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said that the central bank rate cuts are not on the agenda in the foreseeable future and noted that the central bank’s rates are not yet restrictive.

Nagel added that “more significant” hikes are needed. Additionally, Isabel Schnabel Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, said that she intends to raise rates by 50 bps in March.

The GBP/USD pair battled to retain the 1.2000 mark, after falling to a fresh multi-week low of 1.1960. The AUD/USD pair settled at around 0.6940, helped by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

On Tuesday, the RBA delivered a hawkish message while raising rates by 25 bps. Substantial gains in Wall Street provided additional support.

USD/CAD trades around 1.3410. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday that no further rate hikes will be needed if, as expected, the economy stalls and inflation comes down.

USD/JPY finally closed the weekly opening gap, currently trading at 131.20.

Spot gold was unable to attract investors and consolidate in the $1,860/70 price zone. Crude oil prices benefited from Wall Street’s rally, with WTI ending the day above $77.5 per barrel.

Economic Data

The United States international trade deficit in goods and services rose by $6.4 billion to $67.4 billion in December, the data published jointly by the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Tuesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for a deficit of $68.5 billion.

Statistics Canada revealed its trade balance narrowed, compared to December’s data, as lower crude oil prices weighed on energy export and imports of consumer goods declined.