Major banks expect China’s economic growth to slow in 2024

Major global investment banks have collectively forecasted a slowdown in the growth of China’s economy in 2024 compared to its growth rate in 2023, which fell below market expectations. Here are the growth expectations for China in 2024 from various banks:

1. JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM): Expects China’s growth to slow to 4.9% in 2024, compared to a 2023 growth forecast of 5.2%.
   
2. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS): Anticipates China’s growth may slow to 4.8% by the end of 2024, with a 2023 growth expectation of about 5.3%.
   
3. Citibank: Forecasts a slowdown in China’s economic growth to 4.6% in 2024, after an expected 5.3% in 2023.
   
4. UBS: Predicts a growth rate of 4.4% for China in 2024, following an expected growth of 5.2% in 2023.
   
5. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS): Has the most conservative estimate, with economists expecting China’s economy to slow to 4.2% in 2024, compared to an anticipated growth of about 5.1% in 2023.

The unanimous motive behind these forecasts is the anticipated slowdown in domestic demand due to the prolonged epidemic-related closure and the crisis in the Chinese real estate market, with concerns about its potential expansion and impact on other sectors of the economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects China’s economy to slow to 4.6% in 2024 due to continued weaknesses in the real estate market and subdued external demand. The Communist Party of China is expected to announce the official growth target for 2024 at the annual parliament meeting in early March.