Key Economic Data Reports Facing Obstacles Amid Shutdown (as of October 13, 2025)

The ongoing partial government shutdown, now in its second week, has led to the suspension or delay of numerous critical economic data releases from federal agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and U.S. Census Bureau. These disruptions stem from furloughs, halted data collection, and paused dissemination processes. Below is a comprehensive description of affected reports, focusing on those already blocked or at high risk since October 1, 2025, drawing from official contingency plans and confirmed impacts reported in recent analyses.

The Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate report for September 2025, from the BLS, was originally scheduled for October 3, 2025, but is now delayed indefinitely due to halted data processing. This deprives markets of essential labor market insights, as economists expected approximately 53,000 jobs added, signaling a continued slowdown from August’s 22,000; it also affects Federal Reserve rate decisions and recession signals, with a 40% risk.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2025, from the BLS, was originally scheduled for October 10, 2025, but is now suspended with collection and release paused. This blocks wholesale inflation tracking, and pre-shutdown response rates were already low, worsening data quality gaps for supply chain analysis.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report Status amid Government Shutdown

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025, originally slated for October 15, faced a significant risk of delay due to the federal government shutdown. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has taken the unusual step of recalling a limited number of essential workers to ensure the report’s production, thereby mitigating the immediate threat of cancellation. This decision is fundamentally driven by the fact that the September CPI data is critical for calculating the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which is legally mandated to be published by November 1. While the raw data for September has already been collected, the final release date for the processed report remains unclear, though it is expected in time for the Federal Reserve’s crucial meeting at the end of the month. Meanwhile, the suspension of data collection persists, which could lead to a potential delay in the next month’s CPI report (for October), and continues to disrupt the release of other essential economic indicators vital for bond markets and monetary policy guidance.

The Construction Spending report for August 2025, from the U.S. Census Bureau, was originally scheduled for October 1, 2025, but is now suspended. This halts visibility into housing and infrastructure trends amid 1.6% annualized GDP growth in the first half of 2025, impacting investment in public projects.

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report for August 2025, from the U.S. Census Bureau, was originally scheduled for October 2, 2025, but is now suspended. This disrupts the manufacturing sector snapshot, obscuring supply chain health and ties into broader industrial output signals.

The International Trade in Goods and Services report for August 2025, from the BEA and U.S. Census Bureau, was originally scheduled for October 7, 2025, but is now suspended. This prevents updates on the trade balance, risking skewing the Q3 GDP advance estimate due October 30 and export/import forecasts.

The Employment Situation preliminary survey for October 2025, from the BLS, was originally scheduled for mid-October 2025 during the collection week including October 12, but data collection is at risk with non-electronic surveys from small businesses paused. This could narrow the survey scope and reduce accuracy for November’s jobs report, compounding uncertainty if the shutdown extends.

The Annual Food Security Survey, from the U.S. Department of Agriculture via the BLS, was originally scheduled for October 2025, but is now canceled. This obscures household food insecurity trends, affecting long-term policy on nutrition assistance.

The National Agricultural Workers Survey on farmworker wages, from the U.S. Department of Labor, was originally scheduled for October 2025, but is now canceled. This limits insights into agricultural labor costs, impacting rural economy and immigration-related analyses.

Regarding broader implications, duration sensitivity is key: short shutdowns, such as those under one week, may allow catch-up releases with minor quality dips, but extensions beyond mid-October could lead to reductions in quality or outright cancellations, as seen in the 35-day 2018-2019 shutdown. The BLS has already noted lower response rates pre-shutdown, amplifying issues. Private alternatives, like ADP’s payrolls showing -32,000 private jobs in September, continue but lack the BLS’s comprehensive methodology and household surveys.

The Federal Reserve’s October 29-30 meeting proceeds without key inputs, relying more on alternative data like freight volumes or corporate earnings, and prolonged delays could shave 0.1-0.2% off weekly GDP growth estimates. This list is not exhaustive, as additional reports, such as future industrial production or GDP components, face cascading risks. For real-time updates, monitor agency websites once funding resumes.