Growth Concerns, Strong USD Drive Investors Away From Metals

A week that saw a continued deterioration in the global growth outlook driven by extended China lockdowns, a stronger dollar and increasingly aggressive rate hike signals from members of the US Fed. The week highlighted how traders positioned themselves ahead of last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

During the week US ten-year bond yields jumped 25 basis points while the dollar reached fresh cycle highs against most currencies. Commodities were mixed with gains in energy and softs being offset by losses across grains, livestock and metals.

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index traded close to unchanged in the week to May 3 with a six percent gain in energy led by natural gas and diesel as well higher prices for cocoa and cotton in the softs sector, offsetting weakness in precious (-2.3%) and industrial metals (-5.2%), as well as grains (-2.8%).

Speculators and money managers responding to these price changes and the continued loss of momentum by cutting bullish bets across 24 major commodity futures by 7% to 1.85 million lots, a four-month low.

Despite racing to a record high in recent weeks, the sector has increasingly become nervous about the global growth and demand. In the short term due to Chinese lockdowns and longer term due to high inflation and tightening monetary conditions hurting demand. The drop in the total net long to a four-months low also driven by elevated volatility forcing leveraged funds, targeting a certain level of volatility to cut their exposure.

From a recent pre-war and pre-China lockdown peak on February 22 at 2.23 million lots, the energy sector exposure has been cut by 23%, metals are down 67% while the agriculture sector is up 2% led by soft commodities.