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Gold Treads Water as Iran Olive Branch Meets Fed Anticipation

Key Takeaways

  • Tight trading range: Spot gold held flat at $4,711.0 per ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.3% to $4,725.94 — a pause after last week’s sharp decline.
  • Iran’s new proposal: Tehran has reportedly handed Washington a fresh offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although it seeks to postpone nuclear talks for later — a likely sticking point.
  • Talks at a standstill: A planned U.S. delegation trip to Pakistan was canceled, with Trump saying Iran can call if it wants to negotiate.
  • Other metals quiet: Silver was flat at $75.6975/oz, while platinum edged up 0.5% to $2,023.54/oz.
  • Fed in focus: Markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged this week, with attention on the Fed’s outlook amid Iran-driven uncertainty.
  • Powell’s farewell: This is set to be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair, with his term ending May 15.
  • Warsh confirmation advancing: Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh — viewed as less dovish than markets had hoped — is now expected to clear Senate confirmation after key opposition dropped.

Gold prices traded within a narrow range on Monday as the U.S. dollar wavered amid tentative hopes for a U.S.-Iran de-escalation, while markets braced for a Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

Bullion attracted some buying interest after suffering a sharp pullback last week, helped by a weekend report indicating that Iran had floated a new proposal to Washington centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Spot gold held flat at $4,711.0 per ounce, while gold futures eased 0.3% to $4,725.94 per ounce as of 02:01 ET (06:01 GMT).

Other precious metals also moved within tight bands on Monday. Spot silver was unchanged at $75.6975 per ounce, while spot platinum advanced 0.5% to $2,023.54 per ounce.

U.S.-Iran Talks Stall, Tehran Floats Hormuz Proposal — Report

Plans for further U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend after Iranian officials departed Pakistan, while Washington canceled its own scheduled mission to Islamabad.

Trump said Tehran could pick up the phone if it wished to engage in dialogue, and reaffirmed his unwavering position that Iran cannot be permitted to possess a nuclear weapon — a stance that has been cited as one of the central drivers of the conflict.

Yet an Axios report stirred some optimism around de-escalation, revealing that Iran has presented Washington with a new proposal aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war.

A pivotal element of the proposal involves shelving discussions over Iran’s nuclear activities for a later stage — a condition likely to encounter pushback from the United States.

U.S.-Iran tensions remained firmly in the foreground on Monday, with the American naval blockade against Iran still in force and Tehran continuing to keep the Strait of Hormuz largely shuttered.

The closure of Hormuz has propelled oil prices sharply higher, igniting concerns about persistent global inflation and the prospect of more hawkish central banks. The dollar drew strength from this dynamic, while non-yielding assets such as gold came under pressure.

Fed Meeting in the Spotlight

The market’s focus this week is squarely on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. Investor attention will gravitate toward the Fed’s economic outlook against the backdrop of heightened uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.

This week’s gathering is set to be the final one under Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term concludes on May 15.

Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to succeed Powell, told Congress last week that he had made no commitments regarding interest rate cuts. Warsh has also been perceived as a less dovish choice than markets had originally anticipated.

His confirmation as Fed chair is now expected to proceed smoothly after Republican Senator Thom Tillis withdrew his opposition. The shift came after the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Powell — a probe that drew widespread criticism for appearing to pressure the central bank into cutting rates.

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