Gold surges above $2,430 on back of rate-cut bets

Gold price gains above $2,430, driven by growing speculation for Fed rate cuts in September. Softer-than-expected US inflation for June indicated that price pressures are on course to return to 2%.

Investors await Fed Powell’s speech and the US Retail Sales data for June. The XAU/USD Index resumes its upside journey above $2,400 in Monday’s American session after a modest correction from a seven-week high of $2,424 on Thursday.

The precious moves higher as the US Dollar (USD) retreats after giving up its intraday gains driven by an assassination attack on former United States (US) President Donald Trump.

The sniper attack on Trump has increased his odds of winning the US Presidential elections later this year. This led to investors pouring funds into the US Dollar, as Donald Trump is known for favoring protective trade policies, which is a favorable scenario for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gains firm footing near 104.00.

The higher US Dollar makes the Gold price an expensive bet for investors. However, the US Dollar falls back as its near-term outlook remains weak on firm speculation that the Fed will begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

Gold price recovers after a hiatus in the uptrend near a seven-week high of $2,432 recorded on Thursday. However, the near-term outlook for the Gold price remains firm as US bond yields weaken. US Treasury yields fall as market expectations for the Fed to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting have accelerated significantly.

10-year US Treasury yields edge higher to 4.20% but are close to an almost four-month low. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as gold.

The bulging probability of Fed rate cuts is the outcome of easing US consumer inflation and cooling labor market strength. Last week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that price pressures decelerated at a faster pace than expected. Soft inflationary pressures boosted confidence that the disinflation process has resumed after a moderate reverse in the first quarter of this year. Also, the monthly headline CPI deflated for the first time in four years.

This week, investors will majorly focus on the US Retail Sales data for June, which will be published on Tuesday. The Retail Sales report is expected to show that sales at retail stores remained unchanged after a meager growth of 0.1% in May.

In Monday’s session, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Washington, scheduled at 16:30 GMT.

In his latest comments at semi-annual Congressional testimony, Powell acknowledged some progress in inflation but reiterated that policymakers want to see inflation declining for months to gain confidence for interest rate cuts.