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Gold prices edged lower on Monday, retreating slightly from last week’s record highs as risk appetite improved following news that the U.S. may exclude electronic goods from its steep tariff hike on Chinese imports. However, ongoing trade war fears, a weak dollar, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve kept gold well-supported above $3,200 per ounce.
As of 01:12 ET (05:12 GMT):
- Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,225.79/oz, but remained close to its all-time high of $3,245.69 hit last week
- Gold futures (June delivery) slipped 0.1% to $3,240.87/oz
Tariff Exemptions Offer Brief Relief, But Trade War Tensions Persist
Gold prices came under modest pressure as markets digested White House comments over the weekend confirming that electronic goods will be exempt—for now—from the 145% tariffs announced by President Donald Trump last week. This triggered a bounce in Asian equities and U.S. stock futures, slightly denting safe-haven demand.
However, Trump quickly tempered market optimism, stating that electronic goods would still face a 20% tariff and that separate levies on electronics were forthcoming.
“This isn’t over,” said analysts. “Markets are still deeply uneasy as trade tensions continue to evolve, and gold remains a go-to hedge in this environment.”
Beijing has retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods and has shown no willingness to back down, instead signaling intent to strengthen trade ties with other global partners. This leaves the broader trade war narrative unresolved and likely to remain a key driver for gold in the weeks ahead.
Fed Easing Signals, Weak Dollar Support Bullion
Adding to gold’s resilience was ongoing dollar weakness, with the U.S. Dollar Index near multi-month lows, and falling Treasury prices, even as yields rose.
Traders are increasingly pricing in at least a 50% chance of a U.S. recession in 2024, further fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates this year—another bullish tailwind for non-yielding gold.
Goldman Sachs Raises 2025 Gold Forecast to $3,700
In a bullish note on Sunday, Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 gold price target to $3,700/oz, up from $3,300, citing:
- Surging safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical and economic risks
- Growing recession fears in the U.S.
- A broader investor rotation into hard assets
In a worst-case scenario, Goldman warned, gold could spike as high as $4,500/oz by the end of 2025.
Broader Metals Mixed; Platinum Rises, Silver Dips
- Platinum futures gained 0.8% to $951.90/oz, continuing their gradual recovery
- Silver futures fell 0.3% to $31.827/oz, lagging gold despite dollar weakness
Copper steadied, with LME copper futures holding at $9,152.90/ton, as traders balanced trade-related demand concerns with a softer greenback.
Outlook: Gold Still Positioned for Strength
While Monday’s modest pullback reflects a short-term uptick in risk appetite, the underlying drivers of gold’s rally remain intact—including the U.S.-China tariff war, global recession risks, and central bank easing signals.
With geopolitical instability still dominating headlines, gold is expected to remain a core defensive asset, and analysts anticipate strong institutional and retail demand if trade tensions deepen or economic data weakens further.
