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Gold prices climbed in Asian trade on Tuesday, recovering from overnight losses as investors eagerly awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony before Congress, hoping for indications of a potential interest rate cut.
Gold’s Recent Gains and Rate Cut Expectations:
The precious metal saw a notable increase last week, driven by a string of weak labor market data that fueled expectations of a September rate cut. The softer dollar also contributed to gold’s upward momentum.
The prospect of lower interest rates has been a key driver for gold, as it reduces the appeal of the dollar and debt, which typically perform well in a high-rate environment. Market expectations for a September rate cut have risen, with traders now pricing in a higher probability based on the CME Fedwatch tool.
Powell’s Testimony and Economic Data:
Investors are particularly focused on Powell’s two-day testimony before Congress, starting later on Tuesday, for clues on the Fed’s stance on interest rates. While Powell has acknowledged progress in curbing inflation, he has also emphasized the need for more confidence before initiating rate cuts.
Beyond Powell’s testimony, other Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, providing additional insights into the central bank’s thinking.
Market participants are also eagerly anticipating the release of key consumer price index (CPI) inflation data, which will further inform the Fed’s outlook on interest rates.
Precious Metals and Copper:
Other precious metals followed gold’s upward trajectory on Tuesday, with platinum futures and silver futures both experiencing gains. Silver has been a standout performer in recent months, outpacing gold’s gains.
In the industrial metals sector, copper prices continued to recover from steep losses in June, driven by hopes of a rebound in demand from China, the top importer. Traders are closely watching for economic cues from China, with trade and inflation figures expected later this week.
Cautious Optimism and Trade War Concerns:
While optimism surrounding potential rate cuts and a weakening dollar supports gold prices, concerns persist about a potential trade war between China and the West, which could impact copper demand. The looming release of Chinese economic data will provide further clarity on the country’s economic health and its implications for industrial metals.
Overall, the gold market is displaying cautious optimism, with traders closely monitoring Powell’s testimony and economic data for further guidance on the direction of interest rates and its impact on precious metals.
