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Gold prices maintained a narrow trading band on Monday, August 18, 2025, edging slightly lower by 0.03% to $3,334.620 amid sustained safe-haven interest driven by geopolitical tensions. The precious metal’s intraday volatility saw it rebound from a daily low of $3,323.685 to a high of $3,358.490, reflecting a net daily gain of approximately 0.36% from its trough, though it remains modestly down from the previous close. A resilient U.S. Dollar and buoyant equity markets near peaks continue to restrain upward momentum, countered by easing Treasury yields. U.S. economic data presents a mixed bag, curbing hopes for bold Federal Reserve rate cuts, yet markets hold firm on an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point trim in September, bolstering gold’s floor.
This resilience ties into ongoing diplomatic uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine saga, after last Friday’s inconclusive Trump-Putin summit in Alaska offered no ceasefire but teased security frameworks for Ukraine. With Russia’s insistence on territorial gains in areas like Donetsk clashing against Ukrainian resolve, the ball now lies with today’s high-stakes gathering involving Trump, Zelenskyy, and European counterparts—expected later in the day—which may pivot the conflict’s course. As of 17:25 GMT+2, gold stands at $3,334.620, off $1.080 from the prior close of $3,335.700 and the open of $3,335.230, with trading volume at 229.54K ticks.
Yield relief aids the metal, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dipped 2.3 basis points to 4.297%, and the 30-year fell nearly 2 basis points to 4.899%, alleviating headwinds for yield-sensitive gold. The U.S. Dollar Index clings above its two-week nadir around 98.00. July’s retail sales met expectations at 0.5% monthly growth but decelerated yearly to 3.9%, hinting at tempered consumer vigor. August’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminarily sank to 58.6, with inflation outlooks heating up—one-year to 4.9%, five-year to 3.9%. Prior week’s inflation mosaic, blending stable consumer metrics with elevated producer costs, led to tempered cut expectations via the CME FedWatch Tool. Speculative fervor cooled per the August 15 CFTC report, with net-long positions at 229,500 contracts. Today’s thin docket amplifies sensitivity to summit outcomes.
The week’s focal points—FOMC minutes Wednesday and Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks Friday—loom large for policy insights. Gold’s longer-term shine endures: down 0.07% over five days but up 0.19% monthly, 14.06% in six months, 27.53% year-to-date, 36.30% annually, 68.63% over five years, and 16,110% all-time. TradingView sentiments vary, with Lingrid forecasting a channel-bound bounce from $3,330 toward $3,385 past $3,350, ArmanShabanTrading eyeing downside below $3,367 to $3,331, and RLinda highlighting consolidation amid U.S. data and geopolitics.
On the technical front, XAU/USD lingers in a 4-hour consolidation, supported at $3,330 and resisted at $3,370. Struggles persist above the 100-period SMA near $3,348, with the 50-period SMA at $3,362 as a lid. RSI below 50 post-oversold flirtation and a tepid MACD bullish hint—lines sub-zero, histograms flat—point to cautious neutrality across oscillators and moving averages. Upside breach of $3,370 eyes $3,400; downside below $3,330 targets $3,300. Gold’s allure as a timeless safeguard against inflation, devaluation, and chaos persists, priced in dollars with dynamics shaped by rates, global risks, and inverse ties to stocks/bonds. Central banks spearhead acquisitions for reserve fortification.
