Gold at a crossroads! Retreat or breakthrough 5/12/2025

Gold traded mixed yesterday, with intraday movements stabilizing near the early high of $4,216 per ounce, reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the next directional move.

Technical Outlook – 4-Hour Timeframe:

Staying above the simple moving averages continues to provide positive momentum and dynamic support, which may encourage further upside attempts.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has begun to issue negative signals, indicating potential limited ability for gold to extend its gains in the near term.

Given the conflicting technical indications, we prefer to monitor price action closely to determine one of the following scenarios:

A confirmed break above the $4,218 resistance level, accompanied by an hourly candle close, could open the door toward $4,228 first, followed by $4,232 as extended targets.

Failure to break 4,218 and a subsequent return below 4,187 would place the price under direct downside pressure, targeting 4,160 initially.

Note: Today we await highly significant U.S. economic data — the core monthly and annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. High volatility is likely around the time of release.

Note: Trading gold carries a relatively high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.

Note: Risk remains elevated amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, and all scenarios are possible.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading CFDs involves risks, and therefore all scenarios may be plausible. The content above is not a recommendation to sell or buy but rather an explanatory reading of price movement on the chart.

S1: 4187.00	R1: 4232.00
S2: 4158.00	R2: 4248.00
S3: 4140.00	R3: 4277.00