Global Markets 2025: A Year of Explosive Gains, Collapsing Giants, and a High-Stakes Setup for 2026

As 2025 draws to a close, global markets are heading toward one of the most dramatic year-ends in recent memory. While U.S. equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies are delivering historic gains, the U.S. dollar and oil are suffering deep, structural declines. The shift is driven by a powerful trifecta: expectations of more than 100 basis points of U.S. rate cuts in 2026, record central-bank purchases of gold, and an artificial-intelligence boom that pushed American tech profits to unprecedented levels. At the same time, a glut in oil supply and renewed tariff concerns have intensified pressure on industrial commodities and the dollar.

The U.S. Dollar: Structural Decline or Temporary Correction?

The dollar is closing 2025 with its worst annual performance since 2008, down nearly 9% year-to-date. The market is fully pricing in a rate cut as early as March 2026, sending investors flocking toward riskier assets and safe-haven metals. Even though new tariffs could raise inflation, traders expect U.S. monetary policy to remain firmly on the easing path. Most analysts now agree that the dollar has entered a long-term downtrend, with key support around the 97–98 range.

Euro and Swiss Franc Surge Back to the Top of the G10

The euro and the Swiss franc have emerged as the strongest G10 currencies of 2025, boosted by severe dollar weakness and heavy safe-haven inflows.
The euro is up more than 12%—its strongest annual performance since the financial crisis—while the franc has appreciated over 11% against the dollar. Europe’s relatively stable economic outlook and steady bond purchases have helped restore the euro’s status as an attractive reserve currency for 2026, while the franc continues to draw substantial foreign inflows.

Gold and Silver: The Undisputed Champions of 2025

Gold has soared more than 61% this year—its biggest annual gain since 2010—while silver has nearly doubled from its lows.
Their rally is powered by:

Record central-bank buying exceeding 1,100 tons

A global cycle of interest-rate cuts

Rising geopolitical tensions

Sharp weakness in the dollar


Forecasts now point to gold reaching the 5,000-dollar zone by mid-2026, with silver expected to hit 65–70 dollars amid explosive industrial demand from solar energy and electric-vehicle manufacturing.

Oil: The Biggest Loser of the Year

In stark contrast, crude oil has been the major underperformer of 2025.
WTI is down nearly 17% for the year due to:

A massive supply surplus, including hundreds of thousands of new barrels per day from key producers

Record U.S. output

Weak Chinese demand

Elevated global inventories


Projections for 2026 point to an average around 55 dollars, with risks of falling into the 40–50-dollar range if oversupply persists.

Canadian Dollar Finds Strength in the Second Half

The Canadian dollar posted one of the strongest recoveries in late 2025, with USD/CAD falling more than 7% from its highs. The reversal is supported by easing tariff concerns, stable oil prices above 55 dollars, and expectations of 3% Canadian growth in 2026.

Bitcoin: From Record Highs to a Healthy Consolidation

Despite a 10% pullback in December, Bitcoin remains up roughly 120% year-to-date after hitting an all-time high near 126,000 dollars.
Driving the surge:

Record ETF inflows surpassing 40 billion dollars

Anticipated regulatory easing

Accelerating institutional adoption


Outlooks for 2026 range between 150,000 and 200,000 dollars.

U.S. Treasuries: Locked in a Tug-of-War

The 10-year Treasury yield has hovered around 4.1–4.2% throughout the second half of the year, caught between rate-cut expectations and tariff-driven inflation risks. Most projections expect yields to remain above 4% for much of 2026.

U.S. Stocks: A Legendary Year for Tech

No market story in 2025 is bigger than U.S. equities:

S&P 500: +38%

Nasdaq 100: +55% (best year on record)

Dow Jones: +28%


The rally is fueled by:

Tech earnings beating expectations by 15–18%

Three U.S. rate cuts in 2025 with more ahead in 2026

More than 1 trillion dollars spent on AI infrastructure

Over 1.2 trillion dollars in stock buybacks

The largest inflows into U.S. equity funds in history


Forecasts place the S&P 500 between 7,300 and 7,500 by end-2026, though stretched valuations—near 29× earnings—raise the risk of a correction or a rotation toward cheaper European and Japanese markets.

2026 Begins at Crossroads

The world is ending one of the most polarized market years in decades: safe-haven assets (gold, franc, euro, Bitcoin) and U.S. tech stocks are soaring, while the dollar and oil slump to vulnerable levels.
The dominant outlook for 2026 points to continued dollar weakness and strength in gold and equities as rate cuts deepen. But risks remain elevated due to stretched valuations and a growing wave of trade tensions.

One message from the markets is unmistakable: liquidity is still king—and investors prefer real assets over cash.