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German exports unexpectedly rose in October, supported by stronger trade within the European Union, even as shipments to the United States and China fell sharply amid ongoing tariff and demand pressures.
Exports from Europe’s largest economy inched up 0.1% on the month, defying expectations for a 0.5% decline, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Statistics Office.
The modest gain comes despite significant challenges in Germany’s two largest non-EU markets. The U.S. imposed a 15% tariff on most EU goods under a July agreement, placing renewed strain on bilateral trade — which totaled €253 billion ($297 billion) last year, making Washington Germany’s top trading partner.
EU Strength Offsets Sharp Drop in U.S. and China Trade
Exports to EU member states rose 2.7%, helping stabilize overall performance.
“The EU stabilises the export performance of German companies,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noting that German firms are steadily losing market share in both the U.S. and China.
Shipments outside the EU fell 3.3%, reflecting a steeper slowdown in global demand.
- Exports to the U.S. slid 7.8% month-on-month, resuming their downward trajectory after a brief September rebound.
- Year-on-year, U.S. exports dropped 8.3%.
- Exports to China declined 5.8%, while imports from China fell 5.2% on the month.
Despite the decline in October, German imports from China are more than 10% higher this year, illustrating what Brzeski called “an increasingly uneven relationship.”
Trade Surplus Widens
Imports dropped 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, helping widen Germany’s foreign trade surplus.
- October surplus: €16.9 billion
- September surplus: €15.3 billion
- October 2024 surplus: €14.6 billion
Economists said the resilience of EU trade offers some relief, but warned that structural risks — from geopolitical tensions to shifting global supply chains — continue to cloud Germany’s export outlook.
