Noor Trends News, Technical Analysis, Educational Tools and Recommendations
Oil futures saw a decline following U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s comments on maintaining sanctions against Russia. His phone conversations with European leaders after meetings in Riyadh highlighted that no peace agreement would be forced on Ukraine and that sanctions on Russia wouldn’t be lifted soon. This has led to speculation about potential sanctions relief if progress is made in peace talks.
Moreover, Rubio’s remarks, coupled with U.S. President Donald Trump’s warnings to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, underscored the U.S.’s eagerness to end the war in Eastern Europe. This could result in lifting sanctions on Russia, boosting global oil supply, and driving prices down.
In the Middle East, Trump expressed support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance on the Gaza war, hinting at potential continuation of ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. Progress in these talks could remove threats to oil supply routes, increasing global supply and negatively impacting prices.
Meanwhile, rising U.S. oil stockpiles indicate a decline in global demand among major economies, further pressuring prices. Inventories rose by 4.860 million barrels in mid-February, surpassing expectations. However, gasoline and distillate inventories declined, highlighting continued demand for fuel in the U.S.
Finally, Trump’s comments expressing displeasure with Zelensky amid peace efforts in Ukraine raised market concerns, benefitting oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions. Yet, ongoing negotiations to resolve the conflict are seen as negative factors for global oil prices.
Crude oil posted a marginal rally yesterday as expectations of an OPEC+ output hike delay continued to build steam. The delay, if realized, should keep the global balance sheet in a deficit through Q2 2025. The “2025 Oil Supply Glut” that dominated headlines into the end of 2024 has been all but forgotten as OPEC remains committed to balancing the market.
Results for yesterday’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:
– Crude: 4.633 vs 3,000 estim.
– Gasoline: -151 vs -1,000 estim.
– Distillates: -2,051 vs -1,500 estim.
– Refinery Utilization: -0.10% vs -0.60% estim.
Today, futures are lower by -0.90 to 71.58. A strong dollar and tariff concerns are working to drive crude lower this morning. The trend in 2025 has been for traders to pare down positioning into weekends, some speculator selling may be working to drive futures lower this morning as well.
Technical Factors
Our outlook is for a choppy, range-bound trade to end the week with intraday risk being skewed to the upside. Concrete, longer-term positioning is tough in this market, and a tactical approach is still preferred.
