GBP/USD Stumbles but Eyes Recovery with Key UK Data on Horizon

The GBP/USD pair, often called Cable, snapped its three-day winning streak on Thursday, July 24, 2025, retreating from a high near 1.3600 to settle around 1.3500. Despite a generally bullish outlook, the pair faced headwinds after mixed economic data from the UK and US stirred market uncertainty. Thursday’s UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures disappointed, missing expectations, while US Services PMI data outperformed, creating a tug-of-war in market sentiment. This pullback has left traders cautious, but Friday’s upcoming UK economic releases offer a chance for Cable to regain its footing.

The UK’s PMI miss underscored lingering economic challenges, dampening enthusiasm for the pound. Meanwhile, strong US Services PMI numbers bolstered the dollar, contributing to GBP/USD’s slide. However, the market’s focus now shifts to Friday’s UK Retail Sales data for June, expected to rebound sharply to 1.2% month-on-month after May’s steep 2.7% decline. A strong retail report could reignite bullish momentum, providing Cable with the fuel to challenge recent highs. On the US side, Durable Goods Orders for June are forecasted to contract by 10.8% month-on-month, a stark reversal from May’s 16.4% surge, potentially softening the dollar’s edge.

Technically, GBP/USD remains supported by a rising trendline and climbing Exponential Moving Averages, signaling an overall upward trajectory. However, the rejection at 1.3600 hints at fading near-term momentum, with the pair at risk of testing the 50-day EMA near 1.3475. A break below this level could deepen the pullback, but a positive UK data surprise could propel Cable back toward its recent highs. As traders navigate this pivotal moment, Friday’s economic releases will likely dictate whether GBP/USD can reclaim its bullish stride or face further downside pressure.