Fitch Expects Weaker US Labour Demand On Interest Rate Hikes

The US labour demand will weaken on rising interest rates, south-dominated jobs recovery according to Fitch Ratings.

Fitch Ratings expects the US labour market to weaken as aggregate demand stagnates over the course of the year in response to the lagged effects of higher interest rates, according to a new Fitch report.

“The 517K payroll growth number for January 2023 was an upside surprise that is likely not going to be sustained.” said Olu Sonola, Head of US Regional Economics. “Job growth has decelerated in five of the last six months. US labour market conditions are still very strong, but they look set to continue the cooling trend in 2023.”

”Employment recovery in 2022 was dominated by the South, particularly in high wage industries, such as information, and professional and business services. Four states in the South (Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia) accounted for approximately 50% of job growth in the information, and professional and business services sectors, relative to pre-pandemic levels. Weakness in these sectors in 2023 will likely be a drag on job growth in these four states.”

The note follows today’s annual inflation rate in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, slowing only slightly to 6.4% in January from 6.5% in December, less than market forecasts of 6.2%, suggesting that getting inflation under control will take more time than expected.