Fed’s Waller supports 75 bps hike at July meeting

“I think it is plausible that we have a growth recession where it goes below longer-run average but doesn’t go negative,” Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday. Waller added that markets would also price a 100 basis points rate hike in July, Waller is also open to a larger move depending on the US economy’s incoming data.

The US Dollar Index edged lower after these comments and was last seen gaining 0.5% on the day at 108.55.

Key Quotes

“It is a very hard game to predict a recession.”

“The labour market would have to deteriorate incredibly fast to throw us into recession.”

“Yesterday’s inflation number was not a big surprise.”

“To go above 75 bps at next meeting, I need to assess data over next couple of weeks.”

“We don’t want to take a knee-jerk reaction to yesterday’s inflation data.”

“For me, 75 bps hike at this meeting gets us to neutral.”

“Recent jobs numbers are amazing figures.”

“Inflation expectations data before next meeting will help shape my view on the size of hike needed at July meeting.”

“Retail sales on Friday will show the level of strength in consumer spending.”

“If we get a good report, that will tell me consumer demand is still strong and we can keep tightening.”

“A large amount of excess savings still in US bank accounts.”

“75 bps hike is my base case.”

“We knew this inflation report would be ugly, but it was uglier than thought.”

“You don’t want to overdo rate hikes but if incoming data over the next two weeks shows me demand is still robust, I would lean into a higher rate hike.”